ADB keeps Pakistan growth forecast at 3.7%, sees inflation at 8.3%

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Thursday kept its economic growth outlook for Pakistan unchanged at 3.7% for the current fiscal year. It projecting inflation at 8.3%, slightly above the government's estimate.

In its Asian Development Outlook (ADO) July 2026, the ADB lowered its growth forecast for developing Asia and the Pacific to 4.9% for 2026 from 5.5% in 2025. The revised estimate is 0.2 percentage points lower than the projection issued in April.

The ADB said the conflict in the Middle East has caused longer-than-expected disruptions to energy markets, putting greater pressure on the region's economic outlook. It retained its growth forecast for 2027 at 5.1%, expecting economic activity to recover as these pressures gradually ease.

According to the report, disruptions in global energy markets are expected to continue easing only slowly despite a framework agreement reached in June.

The lender said the impact of the conflict has spread beyond energy to fertilisers, commodity prices and supply chains, increasing inflationary pressures across the region.

The ADB now expects inflation in developing Asia and the Pacific to average 4.3% in 2026, compared with 3% last year. The new forecast is 0.7 percentage points higher than its April estimate, while the inflation outlook for 2027 remains unchanged at 3.4%.