Historian Allan Lichtman sees Harris winning US presidential election

Historian Allan Lichtman and data scientist Thomas Miller predict Kamala Harris will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election against Donald Trump.

Lichtman's prediction system, "The Keys to the White House," has accurately forecasted nine out of ten previous presidential elections since 1984.

His system considers 13 keys, including the mandate key, incumbency key, and policy change key, to determine the outcome.

Lichtman believes the Democrats will win nine keys, including the contest key, third-party key, and short-term economic key, while losing four keys, such as the mandate key and foreign policy failure key.

Miller's forecasting platform, "The Virtual Tout," uses data from PredictIt, a prediction market where users bet on political races, to predict Harris's win with 289 electoral votes.

It's worth noting that Lichtman's system doesn't rely on opinion polls, instead focusing on historical and policy-based factors.

Miller's approach also emphasizes the importance of prediction markets over traditional polling data. While predictions are subject to change, both Lichtman and Miller currently favor Harris's chances in the election.