Weather pattern El Nino has begun and could bring record heat, scientists say

The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced on Thursday that El Niño has officially started and is expected to become stronger in the coming months.

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that causes warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The phenomenon can affect weather conditions around the world by altering wind systems, rainfall patterns and temperature trends.

In its latest update, NOAA said El Niño conditions emerged during the past month, based on above-average ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific region.

According to the agency, there is a 63 per cent chance that El Niño will become very strong between November and January. If that happens, it could rank among the most powerful El Niño events recorded since 1950.

Strong El Niño events are often linked to dry conditions in parts of the Amazon, Indonesia and Australia. They can also affect India’s monsoon season and change rainfall patterns across many tropical regions.

Although El Niño usually reaches its peak toward the end of the year, the extra heat stored in the oceans can continue to influence the atmosphere for months afterward. As a result, global temperatures often rise further in the following year.

The climate pattern is also expected to add to the warming effects already being caused by greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels.

A day earlier, the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service said confidence was growing among scientists that a very strong El Niño could develop later this year.

Carlo Buontempo, director of the climate service, said current forecasts point to a moderate-to-strong event, with the possibility that it could become exceptionally powerful or even break existing records.