PMD forecasts below-normal rainfall, above-normal temperatures from July to September

The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has extended its forecast of below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures across most parts of the country during the July-September period.
According to the PMD’s three-month outlook, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in a neutral phase and is expected to gradually shift to a positive phase later in the season.

At the same time, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are showing a warming trend, indicating the development of El Niño conditions. The PMD noted that El Niño is generally linked to reduced rainfall over Pakistan.

The report said current projections suggest that the warming trend is likely to continue throughout the July-September 2026 period and may strengthen further as the season progresses.

While a positive IOD phase is usually associated with slightly above-normal monsoon rainfall in Pakistan, the PMD said its impact is expected to remain limited because the transition is likely to occur later in the season.

The department forecast normal to below-normal rainfall across most parts of the country, with the largest rainfall deficits expected in northeastern Punjab and adjoining areas. Its probabilistic outlook also indicated a higher likelihood of below-normal rainfall in most regions, including Punjab, Sindh, southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and much of Balochistan.

In contrast, Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir and upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are expected to receive normal to slightly above-normal rainfall during the period. The PMD further forecast above-normal temperatures across the country, with the highest temperature increases expected in northeastern Punjab and eastern Gilgit-Baltistan.

According to the temperature outlook, most forecasting models point to warmer-than-normal conditions, particularly across Punjab, southern parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, eastern Balochistan and western Sindh.

The department warned that near-normal to slightly above-normal rainfall in northern regions could increase the risk of flash floods and landslides, especially in mountainous and flood-prone areas. It also cautioned that urban flooding may occur in major cities across all four provinces during heavy rainfall events.

The report added that above-normal temperatures in Gilgit-Baltistan, upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Kashmir could accelerate snowmelt, leading to higher river flows, increased stream discharge in downstream areas and a greater risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs).