'Uncertain monsoon threatens agriculture'

ISLAMABAD: Experts have warned that an unpredictable monsoon season could threaten Pakistan’s agricultural output and economic stability, stressing the importance of stronger climate risk management during a policy dialogue hosted by the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE).

PIDE Registrar Dr Nasir Iqbal said climate change has become a major economic challenge, affecting productivity, inflation, employment and growth. He noted that changing monsoon patterns pose serious risks to agriculture-dependent communities, with the sector contributing more than 23% to the national economy.

Dr Inayat Ullah of PIDE highlighted that rising temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns are particularly impacting rain-fed and southern irrigated areas. Meanwhile, Chief Meteorologist Dr Faisal Saeed said forecasts suggest above-normal temperatures and potentially below-average rainfall, although extreme weather events remain a possibility.

Dr Kamal Ahmed of the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) said climate-related economic losses are increasing due to inadequate preparedness. Experts also pointed to a shortage of adaptation financing and called for greater investment in resilience measures, including agricultural insurance.

Dr Mohsin Kiani noted that the livestock sector remains vulnerable to heat stress, disease outbreaks and flooding, recommending climate-smart feeding practices and broader insurance coverage. Participants agreed on the need to improve institutional coordination, expand research efforts and ensure effective implementation of climate policies.