Below-normal rainfall, above-normal temperatures expected in most parts of country from June to August: PMD

On Wednesday, the Pakistan Meteorological Department, or PMD, predicted below-normal rain and above-normal temps for most of the country from June to August. 

According to the PMD, the Indian Ocean Dipole is in a neutral phase now but will transition to a positive one by July. Additionally, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation has entered a positive phase—aka El Nino—and it'll get stronger during the season.

Considering these factors, the PMD expects "normal to below-normal" rainfall across the nation in the JJA period. However, the northeastern part of Punjab might see less rain than other areas. 

To support their forecast, the Met Office shared a probability outlook showing a high likelihood of below-normal rainfall throughout Pakistan, especially Punjab, Sindh, southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and most of Balochistan.

There's a silver lining, though: the northern regions, like Gilgit-Baltistan, parts of northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Kashmir, may experience near-normal to slightly above-normal rain.

Meanwhile, mean temperatures are expected to remain above normal throughout the country during the JJA season, with maximum departure over the northeastern parts of the country — particularly eastern GB, Kashmir and adjoining areas of northern Punjab.

The probabilistic temperature outlook indicated the likelihood of “above-normal temperatures across much of the country, with the highest likelihood over Sindh, southeastern Balochistan, and central to northeastern parts of Punjab”.

In contrast, western GB is projected to tend towards below-normal temperatures, it added.