What lies ahead for PTI after Islamabad protest fizzles out?

A large protest organized by supporters of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) in Islamabad was forcibly dispersed by security forces, resulting in casualties on both sides.

The demonstration, which began on Monday night to demand the release of PTI leader Imran Khan, ended abruptly early Tuesday after a late-night raid by law enforcement personnel.

Protest ends in chaos

The protest, which saw thousands of PTI supporters arrive in Islamabad from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, was initially called by Imran Khan’s wife, Bushra Bibi, urging the crowd to remain in the capital until Khan’s release was secured.

However, by Tuesday morning, after security forces clamped down on the rally with tear gas and a power blackout, PTI announced that it was calling off the protest "for the time being."

The operation, which took place near D-Chowk in the Red Zone of the capital, led to conflicting reports of fatalities. PTI claimed that eight of its supporters were killed, while the government denied using live ammunition, asserting that no protesters died.

However, authorities confirmed that three rangers were killed in a hit-and-run incident involving a PTI convoy, and a police constable died in clashes with protesters.

'Failed political strategy'

This latest protest marks the fourth in a series of failed rallies by PTI in recent months. The party had previously staged similar protests in October, which ended prematurely.

Analysts have suggested that the latest defeat is a significant blow to PTI's political strategy. "This protest was framed as their ‘final call’, but for it to collapse like this is a major setback for the party," said political analyst Zaigham Khan while talking to foreign media outlet.

The PTI convoy entered Islamabad despite a court order banning their entry, demanding the reversal of a constitutional amendment, the release of political prisoners including Imran Khan, and the return of what they called their "stolen mandate" from the February elections.

The government, meanwhile, defended the actions of law enforcement, with Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi blaming Bushra Bibi for orchestrating the unrest. “The loss of life and economic damage lies squarely on her shoulders,” Naqvi said. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s spokesperson also rejected accusations of excessive force, stating that PTI protesters were armed and had violated court orders.

Political analysts believe the government’s heavy-handed approach is meant to deter future protests, though it risks further alienating opposition groups and the public. "The use of force risks backfiring and exposes the government’s failure to engage in dialogue or de-escalate matters," said another analyst Benazir Shah.

PTI leadership faces internal strain

As the protest ended in failure, questions arose about the PTI leadership’s ability to regroup and formulate a new strategy. The sudden departure of Bushra Bibi and PTI leader Ali Amin Gandapur, who retreated to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as the operation unfolded, has added to the party’s internal strife. Analysts speculate that this could deepen divisions within the party.

Political observer Ahmed Ijaz pointed out that the leadership’s decision to abandon the protesters could damage PTI's future efforts. “Their actions at D-Chowk will hurt the party’s ability to move forward,” he said while talking to Al Jazeera. 

Despite the setback, PTI officials, including Gandapur, have vowed to continue pressing their demands. In a news conference, Gandapur condemned the crackdown and indicated that the party would not back down from its objectives.

A crossroads for PTI: future strategy in question

Looking ahead, political analysts suggest that PTI may need to recalibrate its strategy. “One potential path could be to build alliances with other political parties and movements that share grievances against the state. A unified protest on social or human rights issues might help generate national momentum,” added Benazir Shah.

The latest developments in Islamabad reflect both the growing frustrations of PTI supporters and the government's determination to maintain control. With the party’s leadership under pressure and no immediate resolution in sight, the political future remains uncertain as Pakistan’s capital continues to grapple with the fallout from this latest protest.