CPI expected to stay at 8-9 percent in September, October: Finance Ministry

Despite a significant decline in fertilisers and poor production in agriculture, the government is expecting a positive economic trajectory with a decline in the estimated inflation to 8-9 percent in September and October on the basis of friendly monetary policy and good fiscal control.

According to the Ministry of Finance, the economic indicators showed positive developments during the initial two months of the fiscal year 2025. 

“Inflation has dropped to a single digit, industries' output has increased, and large exporting sectors have witnessed growth, reflecting an optimistic outlook for export,” stated a monthly economic outlook for September issued by the Ministry on Friday.

“Inflation is expected to remain within the range of 8pc to 9pc in September and October,”

“This trajectory is expected to continue in the coming month,” it stated, adding, “This recovery is expected to be bolstered by the favourable external environment.”

Moreover, the government believed that the accommodative monetary policy, improvement in the investors’ confidence, and global market recovery would provide additional support for sustainable growth.

However, the government’s policies are expected to support fiscal accounts, but agriculture production depends on the weather conditions, which would pave the way for the productivity of Kharif crops.

On the contrary, the government acknowledged that the production of urea in Kharif declined to 13.6 percent compared to the 21.9 percent of the Kharif of 2023.

Earlier in August, the Pakistan Statistics Bureau (PBS) recorded a single-digit inflation that declined to 9.6 percent.