Global temperature expected to increase by 1.5°C within five years: UN

The global temperature is likely to be increased by 1.5°C in the upcoming five years, predicted the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) on Thursday.

WMO shared a report about global temperature, indicating that there is an 80 percent chance that the world will witness a rise in annual average global temperature, above pre-industrial levels for at least one of the next five years.

“WMO is sounding the alarm that we will be exceeding the 1.5°C level temporarily with increasing frequency. We have already temporarily surpassed this level for individual months – and indeed as averaged over the most recent 12-month period,” said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett.

She added that a temporary increase does not mean that the goal set in the Paris Agreement is lost permanently. 

The WMO explained that the increase would not happen suddenly, but near-surface temperature for a year between 2024 and 2028 is predicted to be between 1.1°C and 1.9°C, higher than the 1850-1900 baseline.

The temperature has been rising steadily since 2015 when such a probability was near zero. From 2017 to 2021, there was only a 20 percent chance of surpassing the limit and this increased to a 66 percent chance between 2023 and 2027.

“Behind these statistics lies the bleak reality that we are way off track to meet the goals set in the Paris Agreement,” said Ms Barrett. 

She urged international authorities to take more measures to cut down carbon emissions as the world would have to be paid trillions of dollars in economic costs, with millions of lives affected by more extreme weather and extensive damage to the environment and biodiversity due to the severe climate change.