South Asia, including Pakistan, may face weak monsoon in 2026 due to El Niño: PMD

El Niño conditions are likely to develop during the 2026 monsoon season in South Asia, potentially leading to below-normal rainfall and above-average temperatures across much of the region, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD).

The outlook was finalised during the 34th session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-34) held in Malé, Maldives. The forum assessed regional climate patterns for the southwest monsoon period from June to September.

In a statement, the PMD said that most parts of South Asia are expected to receive below-normal rainfall during the upcoming monsoon season, particularly central regions. However, some northwestern, northeastern, and southern areas may experience normal to above-normal precipitation.

The department also projected higher-than-usual minimum and maximum temperatures across much of the region during the same period.

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon characterised by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It influences global weather patterns, including rainfall and temperature variations. Its opposite phase, La Niña, typically brings contrasting effects, while neutral conditions occur between the two.