Early US election results could be misleading, experts say

Early vote returns in key US battleground states may not accurately predict the winner of the presidential election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, the experts said on Tuesday.

This is due to varying vote counting rules and quirks in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, and Nevada.

In the 2020 election, some states experienced a "red mirage" where Trump initially led, only to be overtaken by Biden as mail-in ballots were counted. This phenomenon could repeat itself, with potential "blue mirages" in North Carolina and Georgia.

Each battleground state has unique rules for handling and counting ballots:

Pennsylvania:

No clear winner for four days after Election Day in 2020 due to mail ballot backlogs. Expect Trump to lead initially, with Harris gaining ground as mail ballots are counted.

Wisconsin:

Delayed reporting of early votes due to processing and tabulating mail ballots on Election Day. Significant batches of votes may be reported at once.

Georgia:

Early in-person voting is popular, with mail ballots processed starting two weeks before the election. All votes must be counted and reported by 8 p.m. ET on election night.

Arizona:

Voting by mail is popular, with initial results favoring Harris before shifting toward Trump as Election Day votes are tallied.

Michigan:

Since the 2020 election, Michigan has instituted early in-person voting for the first time and begun permitting jurisdictions with more than 5,000 people to begin processing and tabulating mail ballots eight days before Election Day.

Smaller jurisdictions can do so the day before Nov. 5.

North Carolina:

Harris may lead initially due to mail ballots, with Trump closing the gap as Election Day votes are counted.

Nevada:

Accepts late-arriving mail ballots, potentially leading to shifts toward Harris after Election Day.

Experts warn that Trump's campaign team may declare victory prematurely, depending on the number of votes remaining to be counted and their source. The outcome will depend on how and when mail-in or early ballots are processed and counted in each state.