Imran Khan unlikely to be released from jail soon: Fitch

Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) founder Imran Khan is unlikely to be released from prison anytime soon, according to BMI, a Fitch Solutions company.

The research company released its Pakistan Country Risk Report for the fourth quarter of 2024 on Thursday.

"Despite several successful legal appeals, opposition leader Imran Khan will remain imprisoned for the foreseeable future," BMI said in the report.

On the other hand, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif-led coalition government faces an uncertain future amid economic uncertainties, as per the Fitch Solutions' report.

“We expect that the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)-led government will remain in power over the coming 18 months and will succeed in pushing through with International Monetary Fund (IMF) mandated fiscal reforms,” it said.

However, BMI warned that the government's survival is uncertain and will likely be replaced with a technocratic setup.

“In the unlikely event that the government is replaced, the most likely alternative is a technocratic administration rather than fresh elections,” the BMI prophesied.

The report further said that negative events can affect the future growth of the country.

"The risks to our growth outlook are heavily weighted to the downside. Pakistan's economy remains very fragile in the face of external shocks."

BMI predicted that economic growth in Pakistan will accelerate from 2.4% in FY 2023-24 to 3.2% in FY 2024-25, driven by monetary easing, improved agricultural output, and slowing inflation.

However, the current account deficit is expected to widen from 0.8% of GDP in FY 2023-24 to 1.0% of GDP in 2024-25.

“We expect that policymakers at the SBP will continue to loosen policy over the longer term, to 14% by the end of 2025."

“The key risk to this forecast is towards faster-than-expected inflation, which would cause policymakers to slow their easing cycle,” it added.